Sharp divisions over Nigeria’s direction heading into 2026 dominated discussions at the latest edition of the Toyin Falola Interviews, where policymakers, academics and public commentators offered starkly contrasting assessments of the country’s prospects.
The session, themed “Nigeria in 2026,” was chaired by renowned historian Prof. Toyin Falola and brought together voices from government and civil society, both at home and in the diaspora. Panelists included Dr. Osmund Ugochukwu Agbo, a U.S.-based pulmonologist and critical care specialist; Dr. Tope Fasua, Special Adviser to the President on Economic Affairs; Zainab Suleiman Okino, Chairman of the Editorial Board of Blueprint Newspaper; and Prof. Chidi Anselm Odinkalu, Professor of Practice in International Human Rights Law at Tufts University.
While government representative struck an optimistic tone anchored on economic data and reforms, other speakers warned that worsening insecurity, ethical collapse and governance failures threaten to overwhelm any economic gains.
“Gloomy and worrisome” outlook
Setting a somber tone, veteran journalist Zainab Okino described Nigeria’s 2026 outlook as “gloomy and worrisome,” citing widespread insecurity, recurring killings and the shutdown of schools and markets across several states.
“We ended 2025 with so many tragedies,” Okino said. “Unfortunately, we are opening 2026 with these realities.”
Drawing from recent reports, she added: “I got information from my home state of Kogi that some markets and parks have been shut down. Recently too, I got the same information about school closures. We also heard about the tragedy in Kwara State. We have been left with endless discussions about who did or did not do what, but lives have been lost.”
According to her, violence and disruption have become normalized. “We wake up to one tragedy or the other about our country,” she said. “In the past, we never heard about primary schools being shut down except during teachers’ strikes. Now it is happening because of insecurity.”
Okino argued that economic reforms introduced since 2023 have failed to translate into improved living conditions for ordinary Nigerians. “There were talks about fuel subsidy removal and tax reforms as temporary pains to improve the economy. Three years down the line, nobody can talk about prosperity,” she said, adding that “the sacrifices are borne almost entirely by the poor masses.”
She added that Nigeria’s political system itself requires urgent reform. “The trajectory has been on a downward slope. Politics in Nigeria is robust, but our democratic practice needs reform. It increasingly appears that the presidential system is not working.”
Healthcare and ethical collapse
On his part, Dr. Osmund Agbo warned that failures in Nigeria’s healthcare system are accelerating avoidable deaths, stressing that governance failures directly translate into human loss.
Similarly, Prof. Chidi Odinkalu argued that Nigeria’s challenges go beyond economics to a deeper crisis of ethics and legitimacy at the top of government. He pointed to what he described as the disturbing contrast between elite celebrations and widespread national mourning.
“The fact that someone occupies an office does not make them a leader,” Odinkalu said. “Leadership comes with legitimacy.”
He rejected the notion that Nigeria’s core problem is revenue generation. “Revenue collection is not our problem,” he said. “The real issue is why Nigerian citizens are unwilling to entrust their earnings to the state. That is a crisis of legitimacy, not economics.”
According to him, electoral malpractice has eroded public trust. “When you rig elections, you cannot claim public respect. When you habitually subvert the will of the people, it becomes impossible to ask them to entrust you with anything,” he argued.
Odinkalu also criticised Nigeria’s regional diplomacy, particularly its handling of ECOWAS following the 2023 coup in Niger Republic. He described ECOWAS as “the single most strategic investment Nigeria ever made in its post-war security,” warning that threats of military intervention without capacity had “toxic consequences.”
“President Tinubu threatened an invasion of Niger Republic that Nigeria could never carry out,” he said. “Niger called our bluff, left ECOWAS, and took Burkina Faso and Mali with them. Since then, Nigeria’s northwestern quadrant has collapsed, and no serious effort has been made to rebuild that security architecture.”
Government sees economic prospects
In contrast, Dr. Tope Fasua, Special Adviser to the President on Economic Affairs, argued that Nigeria’s economic fundamentals point to cautious optimism.
“If we are talking about Nigeria in 2026 from an economic perspective, some data are available about what is already happening,” Fasua said. He noted that Nigeria recorded about 4 per cent growth last year, with projections of 4.5 per cent growth in the current year.
He added that the International Monetary Fund recently identified Nigeria as one of the African countries expected to contribute to global growth. “That tells us that we have prospects,” he said.
According to Fasua, the structure of Nigeria’s economy has shifted significantly. “The non-oil sector now controls about 96.5 per cent of the economy, while oil is just 3.5 per cent,” he explained, adding that inflation is trending downward following economic rebasing.
“The naira is getting stronger. We are looking at about ₦1,250 to the dollar this year,” he said, expressing optimism about achieving single-digit inflation.
Fasua defended recent reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and currency recalibration. “Fuel subsidy was taking over $10 billion annually from Nigeria,” he said. “Medical tourism payments have dropped by about 95 per cent. It is not all gloom and doom.”
While admitting that revenue generation remains a challenge, he insisted that the current administration is “reform-focused” and working towards a more equitable system through tax reforms and elite consensus.
A nation at a turning point
Despite areas of limited agreement, the discussion underscored a deep divide over whether Nigeria is on the path to recovery or decline. As Prof. Falola noted, the clash of perspectives reflects a country standing at a critical crossroads—where economic projections, political legitimacy, security and ethics will jointly determine what 2026 ultimately holds for Africa’s most populous nation.
